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Nuclear Proliferation and Nuclear Weapon Capable Countries

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Countries That Are Nuclear Weapons Capable or Easily Capable

The question is only how long until nuclear weapons are detonated in anger

Nuclear War GuaranteeNuclear War Guarantee

Iran - Turkey - Saudi Arabia - Israel - Russia - China - Pakistan - India - North Korea - Taiwan
UAE - Japan - Australia - Canada - US - France - Italy - Germany - United Kindom - & more

Unconfirmed: North Korea to sell Iran 5 light weight mountable nuclear warheads for $5 billion

Worldwide Fallout Threat Level = 1 - 10
(Pandemic, CME/EMP, Satellite/Space, & Nuclear)

Current Worldwide Threat Level >>> 7 <<< (Indo region + Pak)
Type: Conventional, Nuclear & Satellite

Current Total Space / Satellite Disruption Threat Level: 5
Nation State: Iran, Russia, India (to Pak), Pakistan, China, North Korea
+
(It only takes a few statellites destroyed to space junk the rest for 100 years)
((All ANY entity such as Iran has to do is launch 2 - 3 non-nuclear Fragment Missiles into space to destroy most United States Military capabilities)) US's 34 Comm and GPS satellites and ALL other satellites become IRRELEVANT)))
massive unemployment and pitch forks filled with gun powder...
Ignorance is bliss (91' GHS HRS)

Countries that either already have are about to get get Nuclear Weapons

To believe the downplayed media non-sense about how this or that country is reliant on this or that and can;t do this or that above or underground is non-sense in totality! The Unites States will NOT be able to do anything about these countires getting nukes without further islolating itself etc.

Iran, because they have the financial, scientific and engineering wherewithal to become a nuclear state, and the reasons why are three-fold: 1) they want nuclear parity and deterrence with Israel, 2) because they want to establish a regional hegemony in the Middle East, and 3) because their archrival, Saudi Arabia, has a connection with Pakistan which would allow them to almost immediately become a nuclear state, and Iran will not stand for that.

Saudi Arabia
, because they distrust the United States as an ally insofar as they were diametrically opposed to the nuclear deal that the EU, the United States and Russia crafted with Iran, which on its face allows Iran to immediately “breakout” into a full fledged nuclear state after 10 years. Secondly, because they do not trust the Iranians to abide by the agreement and are steadfast in their belief that Iran will cheat, and beyond the prying eyes of the West, in the underground military facilities they managed to keep “off limits” to UN inspectors, will continue to develop the capacity to make nuclear warheads. Therefore, the Saudis will not chance this from happening. That is one reason why Saudi Arabia over the last year has forged close ties with Israel, including sharing information between their two intelligence services. The Saudis are likely to become a nuclear state because of their tight relationship with Pakistan, who they funded in the Pakistanis research and development of their nuclear and ballistic missile programs. I would not be at all surprised to learn that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia already have a secret agreement in place to quickly transfer nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles and their technology, to the Saudis for their asking.

Turkey
, because it seems more and more that the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is moving away democratic rule and the secularism once embodied in its institutions, including the military which were once the guardians of secularism within the government, to an authoritarian rule similar to how Vladimir Putin runs Russia. Turkey is annoyed with the EU for not allowing it to join the EU, nor to provide visa-free access to western Europe. And although it is a NATO member, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is near his limits with the United States over the failure of the United States to turn over Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen who now lives in self-imposed exile under the safety of the United States, in Pennsylvania. With Erdoğan cozying up to Putin, and with the amount of trade between Russia and Turkey being more substantial than between Turkey and the EU, it is only a matter of time that Turkey will forego any further attempt at joining the EU because his authoritarian actions will prevent the EU from offering Turkey membership. At that point, Turkey and Russia may find they have more in common together than opposing each other. The two countries could very well enter into a federation of convenience in which Turkey would then cease to be the guardian of NATO’s southern European flank. The United States, already pondering the question on whether or not to remove their B61 thermonuclear bombs stored in Turkey under the auspices of NATO due to deteriorating relations. If and when that happens, Turkey likely will make a complete break from NATO, Europe and the United States and see its destiny better fulfilled either as a non-aligned nation, or in a loose confederation with Russia. At that point, Turkey will develop its own nuclear program to go along with its sizeable and very strong military force to offset and counter Iran’s desire to be the biggest, bad-ass in the neighborhood.

Vietnam
, because it has already fought two mini-wars with China over territorial claims, and China is now exerting its military and economic weight over maritime claims in the South China Seas. Since Vietnam is also a communist government, and has the scientists and engineers in development who can eventually create a nuclear weapon, so long as China attempts to push Vietnam out of its own territory, Vietnam will come to a decision that the only way to neutralize China’s advantage is to be a nuclear state as well.

Taiwan
, because they already have the technical expertise and nuclear fissile materials to construct a nuclear bomb. And because they also have overlapping territorial claims with China, but moreover because as the younger generation starts to take over the reins of governance, today’s Taiwanese see themselves as a free and independent nation state under their form of democracy, and not as a communist satellite of mainland China. Today, the Taiwanese are acutely aware that the day they declare themselve an independent nation, the day war starts between them and China. To preposition themselves for that eventual declaration, the Taiwanese may come to the conclusion that the only way for them to achieve independence without having China invade them, is to possess nuclear weapons as a deterrent. The Taiwanese walk on “egg shells” with the United States, not knowing for certain that if it ever came to defending the island nation, that the US government would commit its military and extend its nuclear shield, or not. The Taiwanese will not take that chance, and I have no doubt that within the halls of power, discussions on the need to have a nuclear deterrence are being actively discussed, the same as they are in three other capitals.

Republic of Korea
, as recently as last month, elements within the South Korean National Assembly, the NIA and ROK military as well as the Blue House and various strategic planners and political writers have begun a dialog on the possible necessity for South Korea to develop its own nuclear deterrent, both as a protection against North Korea, as well as against an ever-growing threat and aggressive stance from China. There is already an urban legend in South Korea that decades ago they developed a nuclear weapon. Whether that is true or not, they certainly have the manufacturing, scientific, engineering and technical prowess to quickly develop both a nuclear weapon and a ballistic missile to mount it on; and even before developing a missile, they have the capacity to modify their fighter jets to carry a small tactical nuclear warhead. The day North Korea perfects a ballistic missile and a miniaturized nuclear warhead, and proves it to the world, is the day South Korea will begin in earnest their own development of a nuclear deterrent.

Japan
, once Prime Minister Abe manages to change the Japanese Constitution and those in the Diet grow stronger in their belief that Japan can no longer maintain its pacifist policy with an evermore aggressive China heavily arming itself for possible war over the South China Seas or, the day North Korea perfects a long range ballistic missile capable of reaching the main islands of the Japan along with a miniaturized nuclear warhead is the day Japan will begin in earnest to discuss in the Diet the need for Japan to develop their own nuclear deterrent.

Germany
, is the economic engine which pulls the rest of the EU, it is also the main political force within the EU along with France, which does possess its own nuclear deterrent. Should Russia continue to expand its military aggressively along the borders of EU and NATO members, become more provocative and become a clear and present danger to Germany, it is only a matter of time that the discussion of the EU forming its own European Armed Forces will come to fruition. With the UK pulling out of the EU, and the EU threatening to make it a painful divorce, the UK could, with the right government coming to power, also decide to pull out of NATO, though it most certainly would continue to be an ally of the United States and NATO member Canada. The more threatened Europe feels, the more the other European nations will forget about the rise of Nazism and WWII, and favor a stronger Germany. At some point, especially if there is a European Army, the Germans will produce their own nuclear deterrent to add to that of France, and to compensate for the possible loss of the one the UK offered when it was aligned with the EU.

Italy
, as a NATO member already houses B61 thermonuclear bombs at its airbases under the nuclear weapons program that the United States has maintained with certain NATO members for the last thirty odd years. As such, its military and especially its pilots, are trained to carry nuclear bombs into Russia in the event of WWIII with the Russians. If Europe takes the discussions now afoot to form their own European Army, and proceeds to do that, and if the UK breaks from NATO but maintains its alliance with the United States and Canada. and Germany decides its must step up and add to the nuclear deterrent of Europe as one of the lead members of the EU and NATO, then it is logical Italy, with the scientific, engineering and technical expertise would not want to be on the sidelines, with just France and Germany having nuclear weapons. Italy would likely develop their own, too.

Australia, as a Commonwealth nation with close ties to both the UK and Canada, have the ability to quickly become a nuclear state. Insofar as it seems that the Philippines may soon have the US forces leave the bases they now occupy on a rotating basis under the defense treaty renegotiated by former President Benigno Aquino III, which is now in jeopardy under the policy shift towards China and perhaps Russia by current President Rodrigo Duterte, Australia may replace the Philippines as the forward operating base for the US military deposed from the Philippines. As a NATO member and due to the defense treaty it maintains with the United States, it is likely that Australia will not remain a nuclear-free country for long. In all likelihood the US will begin to maintain an arsenal of nuclear weapons once again on its surface and submarine fleets for those which do not now regularly carry them aboard. The US and Australia may also agree to have Australia to maintain a bomber fleet and B61 thermonuclear bombs in Australia as a forward staging area if things heat up with China. Since the UK has their own thermonuclear weapons, and maintains a close tie with both Canada and Australia as allies, it is not inconceivable that should the world once again enter into a Cold War phase with both Russia and China this time around, that Australia would not avail itself of a credible nuclear defense force to dissuade China from any thoughts of invading Australia to secure for itself an abundant source of iron ore and coal, as well as wheat and beef cattle to feed its growing population’s needs.

Raymond Lockey, former special advisor to Office of the President & liaison to US Congress

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

North Korea

Vietnam

Australia

Japan

 

Iran's Nuclear Weapons:

Iran's Nuclear Capabilities Fast Facts

(CNN) Here's a look at Iran's nuclear capabilities.

Since 2003, worldwide concern over Iran's nuclear program has increased as Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) spar over investigation and details of Iran's program. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has repeatedly denied Iran is building a bomb and says weapons of mass destruction are forbidden under Islam.


Timeline:


1957 - The United States signs a civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Iran.
1958 - Iran joins the International Atomic Energy Agency.
1967 - The Tehran Nuclear Research Center, which includes a small reactor supplied by the United States, opens.
1968 - Iran signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Mid-1970s - With US backing, Iran begins developing a nuclear power program.
1979 - Iran's Islamic revolution ends Western involvement in the country's nuclear program.
December 1984 - With the aid of China, Iran opens a nuclear research center in Isfahan.
February 23, 1998 - The United States announces concerns that Iran's nuclear energy program could lead to the development of nuclear weapons.
March 14, 2000 - US President Bill Clinton signs a law that allows sanctions against people and organizations that provide aid to Iran's nuclear program.
February 21, 2003 - IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei visits Iran to survey its nuclear facilities and to encourage Iran to sign a protocol allowing IAEA inspectors greater and faster access to nuclear sites. Iran declines to sign the protocol. ElBaradei says he must accept Iran's statement that its nuclear program is for producing power and not weapons, despite claims of the United States to the contrary.
June 19, 2003 - The IAEA issues a report saying that Iran appeared to be in compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but that it needed to be more open about its activities.
August 2003 - The IAEA announces that its inspectors in Iran have found traces of highly enriched uranium at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant. Iran claims the amounts are contamination from equipment bought from other countries. Iran agrees to sign a protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty that allows for unannounced visits to their nuclear facilities and signs it on December 18, 2003.
October 2003 - The Foreign Ministers of Britain, France and Germany visit Tehran, and all parties agree upon measures Iran will take to settle all outstanding issues with the IAEA. Under obligation to the IAEA, Iran releases a dossier on its nuclear activities. However, the report does not contain information on where Iran acquired components for centrifuges used to enrich uranium, a fact the IAEA considers important in determining whether the uranium is to be enriched for weapons.
November 2003 - Iran agrees to halt uranium enrichment as a confidence building measure and accepts IAEA verification of suspension.
December 2003 - Iran signs the Additional Protocol to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty with the IAEA voluntarily agreeing to broader inspections of its nuclear facilities.
February 2004 - A.Q. Khan, "father" of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, admits to having provided Iran and other countries with uranium-enrichment equipment.
June 1, 2004 - The IAEA states they have found traces of uranium that exceed the amount used for general energy production. Iran admits that it is importing parts for advanced centrifuges that can be used to enrich uranium, but is using the parts to generate electricity.
July 31, 2004 - Iran states that it has resumed production on centrifuge parts used for enriching uranium, but not enrichment activities.
August 8, 2005 - Iran restarts uranium conversion, a step on the way to enrichment, at a nuclear facility, saying it is for peaceful purposes only, and flatly rejects a European offer aimed at ensuring the nation does not seek nuclear weapons.
August 9, 2005 - Iran removes the IAEA seals from its Isfahan nuclear processing facility, opening the uranium conversion plant for full operation. IAEA spokesman Mark Gwozdecky states that the plant "is fully monitored by the IAEA" and "is not a uranium enrichment plant."
September 11, 2005 - Iran's new foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, says the country won't suspend activities at its Isfahan uranium conversion facility and it plans to seek bids for the construction of two more nuclear plants.
January 10, 2006 - Iran resumes research at its Natanz uranium enrichment plant, arguing that doing so is within the terms of an agreement with the IAEA.
January 12, 2006 - Foreign ministers of the EU3 (Great Britain, France, Germany) recommend Iran's referral to the United Nations Security Council over its nuclear program.
January 13, 2006 - Iran's Foreign Minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, states that if Iran is referred, its government under law will be forced to stop some of its cooperation with the IAEA, including random inspections.
February 4, 2006 - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad orders Iran to end its cooperation with the IAEA.
April 11, 2006 - Hashemi Rafsanjani, Iran's former president, states that Iran has increased the number of functioning centrifuges in its nuclear facilities in Natanz and has produced enriched uranium from them.
August 31, 2006 - The IAEA issues a report on Iran saying the Islamic republic "has not suspended its enrichment activities" despite this day's deadline to do so. Iran can possibly face economic sanctions.
December 23, 2006 - The UN Security Council votes unanimously to impose sanctions against Iran for failing to suspend its nuclear program.
February 22, 2007 - The IAEA issues a statement saying that Iran has not complied with the UN Security Council's call for a freeze of all nuclear activity. Instead, Iran has expanded its uranium enrichment program.
March 24, 2007 - The UN adopts Resolution 1747 which toughens sanctions against Iran. The sanctions include the freezing of assets of 28 individuals and organizations involved in Iran's nuclear and missile programs. About a third of those are linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, an elite military corps.
May 23, 2007 - The IAEA delivers its latest report to the United Nations on Iran's nuclear activities. The report states that not only has Iran failed to end its uranium enrichment program but has in fact expanded their activity.
June 21, 2007 - Iran's Interior Minister Mostapha PourMohamedi claims, "Now we have 3,000 centrifuges and have in our warehouses 100 kilograms of enriched uranium." ..."We also have more than 150 tons of raw materials for producing uranium gas."
December 2007 - A US intelligence report finds that Iran abandoned a nuclear weapons program in 2003.
February 20, 2009 - The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reports that Iranian scientists have reached "nuclear weapons breakout capability." The report concludes Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon but does have enough low-enriched uranium for a single nuclear weapon. An official at the IAEA cautions about drawing such conclusions. The IAEA says Iran's stock of low-enriched uranium would have to be turned into highly enriched uranium (HEU) to become weapons-grade material.
February 25, 2009 - Iran runs tests at its Bushehr nuclear power plant using "dummy" fuel rods, loaded with lead in place of enriched uranium to simulate nuclear fuel. A news release distributed to reporters at the scene states the test measured the "pressure, temperature and flow rate" of the facility to make sure they were at appropriate levels. Officials say the next test will use enriched uranium, but it's not clear when the test will be held or when the facility will be fully operational.
September 21, 2009 - In a letter to the IAEA, Iran reveals the existence of a second nuclear facility. It is located underground at a military base, near the city of Qom.
October 25, 2009 - IAEA inspectors make their first visit to Iran's newly disclosed nuclear facility near Qom.
February 18, 2010 - In a statement, the IAEA reports that it believes Iran may be working in secret to develop a nuclear warhead for a missile.
August 21, 2010 - Iran begins fueling its first nuclear energy plant, in the city of Bushehr.
December 5, 2010 - Ali Akbar Salehi, Iran's atomic chief and acting foreign minister, announces that Iran's nuclear program is self-sufficient and that Iran has begun producing yellowcake, an intermediate stage in processing uranium.
January 8, 2011 - Salehi reports that Iran can now create its own nuclear fuel plates and rods.
September 4, 2011 - Iran announces that its Bushehr nuclear power plant joined the electric grid September 3, making it the first Middle Eastern country to produce commercial electricity from atomic reactors.
September 5, 2011 - In response to Iran's nuclear chief stating that Iran will give the IAEA "full supervision" of its nuclear program for five years if UN sanctions are lifted, the European Union says that Iran must first comply with international obligations.
November 8, 2011 - The IAEA releases a report saying that it has "serious concerns" and "credible" information that Iran may be developing nuclear weapons.
January 9, 2012 - The IAEA confirms that uranium enrichment has begun at the Fordo nuclear facility in the Qom province in northern Iran.
January 23, 2012 - The European Union announces it will ban the import of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products.
January 29, 2012 - A six-member delegation from the IAEA arrives in Tehran for a three-day visit, shortly after the EU imposes new sanctions aimed at cutting off funding to the nuclear program.
January 31, 2012 - In Senate testimony James Clapper, Director of National Intelligence, says there's no evidence Iran is building a nuclear bomb. CIA Director David Petraeus agrees.
February 15, 2012 - Iran loads the first domestically produced nuclear fuel rods into the Tehran research reactor.
February 21, 2012 - After two days of talks in Iran about the country's nuclear program, the IAEA expresses disappointment that no progress was made and that their request to visit the Parchin military base was denied.
March 28, 2012 - Discussions regarding Iran's nuclear future stall.
April 14, 2012 - Talks resume between Iran and six world powers over Iranian nuclear ambitions in Istanbul, Turkey.
May 25, 2012 - An IAEA report finds that environmental samples taken at the Fordo fuel enrichment plant near the city of Qom have enrichment levels of up to 27%, higher than the previous level of 20%.
June 18-19, 2012 - A meeting is held between Iran and the P5+1 (United States, France, Russia, China, Great Britain and Germany) in Moscow. No agreement is reached.
June 28, 2012 - Saeed Jalili writes to European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton warning world powers to avoid "unconstructive measures" such as the oil embargo that's about to go into effect and that was agreed upon by the EU in January.
July 1, 2012 - A full embargo of Iranian oil from the EU takes effect.
August 30, 2012 - A UN report finds that Iran has stepped up its production of high-grade enriched uranium and has re-landscaped Parchin, one of its military bases, in an apparent effort to hamper a UN inquiry into the country's nuclear program.
September 24, 2013 - At a speech at the UN General Assembly, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani says "Nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction have no place in Iran's security and defense doctrine, and contradict our fundamental religious and ethical convictions."
October 16, 2013 - The latest discussions between Iran and the six world powers center on a proposal put forth by Iran to recognize the peaceful nature of its nuclear energy pursuits. The meeting is described as "substantive and forward-looking."
November 24, 2013 - Six world powers and Iran reach an agreement over Iran's nuclear program. The deal calls on Iran to limit its nuclear activities in return for lighter sanctions.
January 12, 2014 - It is announced that Iran will begin eliminating some of its uranium stockpile on January 20.
January 20, 2014 - Iran's nuclear spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi tells state-run news agency IRNA that Iran has started suspending high levels of uranium enrichment.
January 20, 2014 - The European Union announces that it has suspended certain sanctions against Iran for six months.
February 20, 2014 - Following talks in Vienna, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif announce that a deal on the framework for comprehensive negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program has been reached.
November 24, 2014 - The deadline for a final nuclear agreement between Iran and the UN Security Council's P5+1 countries (the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany) has been set for July 1, 2015.
April 2, 2015 - Negotiators from Iran, the United States, China, Germany, France, Britain and Russia reach a framework for an agreement on Iran's nuclear capabilities, which includes reducing its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98%. The deadline for the complete agreement is July 1.
April 9, 2015 - Rouhani announces that Iran will only sign a final nuclear agreement if economic sanctions are lifted on the first day of implementation.
July 14, 2015 - A deal is reached on Iran's nuclear program. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reduces the number of Iranian centrifuges by two-thirds. It places bans on enrichment at key facilities, and limits uranium research and development to the Natanz facility.
July 20, 2015 - The UN Security Council endorses the nuclear deal.
January 16, 2016 - IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano says Iran has completed all the necessary steps agreed under the nuclear deal, and that all participants can begin implementing the JCPOA.
March 8-9, 2016 - Iran test-fires two Qadr ballistic missiles during a large-scale military drill, according to Iran's state-run Press TV. US officials say that the tests do not violate the nuclear agreement (JCPOA), but are very likely in breach of a UN resolution calling on Iran not to undertake ballistic missile activity.
January 29, 2017 - Iran launches a medium-range ballistic missile, its first missile test since Donald Trump became US president, but the test fails, according to information given to CNN by a US defense official. National Security Adviser Michael Flynn says the United States has put "Iran on notice."
February 3, 2017 - In reaction to the January 29 missile test, the US Treasury Department says it is applying sanctions on 25 individuals and companies connected to Iran's ballistic missile program and those providing support to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Qods Force. National Security Adviser Flynn says the tests were in defiance of a UN Security Council resolution that bars Iran from taking steps on a ballistic missile program capable of launching nuclear weapons.
September 20, 2017 - Rouhani asserts that "It will be a great pity if this agreement were destroyed by rogue newcomers to the world of politics," in a clear reference to Trump's address to the UN General Assembly on September 19th, where he offered scathing criticism of both Iran and the 2015 international agreement.
October 13, 2017 - Trump decertifies Iran's compliance with the nuclear agreement -- declaring that the Obama-era pact was not in US interests and unveils a tough new policy toward the Islamic Republic. The move stops short of completely scrapping the agreement, instead kicking it to Congress, who then has 60 days to determine a path forward. Congress allows the 60-day deadline to pass without action.
January 12, 2018 - Trump agrees to waive key nuclear-related sanctions against Iran as part of the 2015 deal, but delivers a stark ultimatum to European allies: "Fix the deal's disastrous flaws, or the United States will withdraw." Trump couples his waiver announcement with new sanctions on 14 Iranian individuals and entities that have committed human rights abuses or supported Iran's ballistic missile programs, which are outside the scope of the nuclear deal. The most prominent of the targets in the latest sanctions is Ayatollah Sadeq Amoli Larijani, the head of Iran's judicial system.
May 8, 2018 - Trump announces that the United States will withdraw from the JCPOA, also known as the Iran deal, and will be imposing "the highest level of economic sanction" against Iran. In Tehran, Rouhani says Iran will take a few weeks to decide how to respond to the US withdrawal, but Rouhani says he had ordered the country's "atomic industry organization" to be prepared to "start our industrial enrichment without limitations."


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